Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a history of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.