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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd