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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.