Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
