Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The average figure of daily homicides each month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new administrative figures. Nevertheless, security specialists have cautioned that homicide figures might not signal better countrywide security.

Notable Reduction in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we have seen during these months is very notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the lowest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety strategy for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced collaboration between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

But, public safety experts warned that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is notably true given the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for assessing the context of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily killings was also an issue because it might mask days when there were especially spiking numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day average makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains beset by severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-related conflict. Last month there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the country to voice their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s very successful, socially it’s very problematic,” Vargas concluded.