Are You Not Being Entertained? The Drop of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A key narrative of the Premier League season so far is the decline of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way clubs are finding goals increasingly from dead-ball situations instead.
When we compare how goals have been scored to the first 11 games last season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open-play and 26 more from team set-pieces and penalties, leading to 13 less in total.
Examining the bigger picture, the number of shots sides are producing have seen an incredible 370 fewer in open play than at this stage previously.
And despite the significant rise in set-piece goals, we've actually seen just two more shots generated from them outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency teams have been at devising strategies to score from dead-ball chances.
Scoring Rates Show a Story
The 301 goals scored in the first 110 fixtures up to now averages out at 2.74 goals per fixture, which if it continued for the whole season might be the smallest for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 per game).
However, only 196 goals scored in open play translates to 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the lowest for 16 years, from 16 years ago (1.76 per game).
The 2009-10 season additionally represents the unique EPL season to experience scoring more often from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 per game).
What Clubs Account for This Change?
Regarding scoring from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded the largest drop, scoring only four in 11 games, a reduction of 10 than at this stage last season.
Outside of Wolverhampton, the Premier League's decline in goals from open play is predominantly a London thing, with five out of the capital's seven sides netting at least five goals fewer from open play than the previous year.
In fairness, this is primarily due to them netting numerous scores at the start of the previous campaign instead of their genuine struggle to score in open-play this season.
Meanwhile Man City have recorded the most significant jump, with all but one of the 23 they've scored this season arriving in open-play.
Set-Play Proficiency
We've compared clubs that came up with the teams that went down they replaced. Play-off winners the Black Cats have netted an additional three goals in open play than Southampton managed in matchday 11 on their way to relegation the previous campaign.
When it comes to goals scored from set-pieces (not counting penalties), Arsenal and the Blues have experienced the most significant jump, with the two clubs replacing the five less goals that they've netted in open play with an equal amount from dead-ball situations.
Man United have scored twice as many goals from set-pieces as they achieved in the 11 games the previous campaign prior to Ruben Amorim assumed control, while Sunderland once more have been better at netting than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.
Manchester City seem unaware of the message about netting additional goals from set-pieces, since they've scored three less than the previous campaign, like Forest, although this may result from the change in style they have tried to implement.
Overall Patterns
Six teams – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham – have been this term's top trend-setters by scoring fewer goals from open play and additional from set-pieces, while Manchester City stand as the sole team to go against the grain up to now by performing the complete reverse.
It will be fascinating to watch if sides persist to rely so heavily on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they regain their all-round creativity and start netting additional scores in open-play too.
